my comments - Kenya Airways looking to expand fleet to 70 aircraft
Kenya Airways CEO has officially stated that the airline is
looking to double its fleet from the current 35 to 70 aircraft by 2025 and is
considering ordering up to 12 Boeing 787-9s to compliment its 8 Boeing 787-8s
along with studying the Airbus A321NEO-LR for medium demand routes under an 8
hour flying range from Nairobi. In addition, KQ is seriously contemplating
launching new nonstop flights to PEK-Beijing once its new Daxing International
airport opens for commercial operations.
As far as network additions are concerned, KQ announced that it
will be launching new 4 weekly flights to Rome and Geneva effective 12JUN using
a B788 operated as a triangular service.
Sources:
https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/breaking-news/281269/kenya-airways-targets-beijing-after-launch-of-new-york-route/
Comments:
KQ’s desire to double its fleet has been talked about for the
past 5 years and unfortunately whenever the topic got serious, the airline got
a reality check when its annual “net losses” were disclosed us thus forcing it
to consider network + fleet cut backs. As long as a route such as JFK is
operated on a nonstop daily basis (currently reduced to 5 weekly), the airline
has no hope of making an overall net profit as a “stand alone airline entity”.
Currently, KQ operates 35 aircraft i.e. 15 E90s + 8 B787-8s + 4
B737-700s + 8 B737-800s. To double its fleet within 6 years for an airline like
KQ is not commercially nor financially feasible.
To begin with, its fleet planning strategy needs to be addressed
as for them to consider the A321NEO-LR is a big mistake as it does not need to
add another fleet type into the mix especially in the narrow body category when
its pilots + engineers are already trained and rated on the B737s for decades.
The current fleet revolves around 3 aircraft types which need to
be brought down to 2 in order to realize long term cost savings and
efficiencies throughout the airline. This can be done in the below manner:
a)
The 15 E90s by 2024 need to be replaced by 15 Boeing
737MAX7s (7M7s). Over here, KQ need to get Boeing to offer them a similar deal
to what AC got few years ago when the latter ordered a bunch load of B737MAXs
and in exchange Boeing purchased 20 E90s from them.
b) 4 B737-700s + 8 B737-800s to be replaced by Boeing 20
737MAX8s (7M8s) only
c) The 8 B788s to be replaced by 10 B789s provided
Boeing agrees to buy back the 8 B788s in exchange for this above proposed new order.
d) Total 45 aircraft spread across 2 fleet types only
i.e. B737MAX + B787 families
e) 70 aircraft are not needed and the more long-haul
wide body flying the airline does, the higher annual net loss it will end up
incurring.
f) The incremental narrow body aircraft need to be used
to strengthen a second medium haul departure hub wave bank out of NBO airport
posted by Behramjee Ghadially @ January 29, 2019
48 Comments
