Air Canada suspends Mumbai services

Air Canada has officially de-listed from all GDS systems, its flights from Toronto to Mumbai effective 29MAR-19. AC currently operates 4 weekly nonstop services using a Boeing 777-200LR which at times gets swapped with the Boeing 787-9.

It is expected that this route will end up becoming a winter only seasonal service operated between November and March in the near future.

In 2017, YYZ-BOM-YYZ p2p round trip pax demand grew to 99,000 passengers versus 84,000 in 2016. 

my opinion on Bangkok Airways fleet replacement

The President of Thailand’s Bangkok Airways has announced that his airline is in the market scouting potential aircraft replacement options for its fleet of 24 narrow body aircraft which consists of 15 A319s and 9 A320s. Along side these aircraft the carrier also operates 15 ATR 72 aircraft on many secondary routes domestically and within a 2 hour flying radius of Bangkok.

PG is based out of BKK and USM (Koh Samui) airport respectively; the latter of which it owns and due to its limited runway only an airplane the size of an A319 or A220-300 can depart with a full payload.

The President has said that it is evaluating the A319Neo, A220-300 and B737-7MAX as part of its fleet replacement strategy.

Comments:

From an aircraft economics point of view only the A220-300 easily wins this contest versus the A319Neo and B737MaX7. However since the airline has another major hub at BKK airport to manage which has many slot constraint issues, it needs bigger narrow body aircraft in order to maximize its passenger uplift per slot ratio. 

There are 4 potential scenarios which can be played out here

SC1 - PG sticks to what it knows best i.e. fly Airbus A320 family aircraft hence it orders A319NEOs hence a seamless transition as it also allows them to operate with a full payload out of Koh Samui airport.

SC2 - PG determines that for it to be relevant and grow organically out of its slot restricted hub of BKK airport, it needs bigger narrow body aircraft for support hence a mix order of 15 A319NEOs + 10 A321NEOs is placed. Out of which the latter would replace the current A320 fleet. The A321Neos would be exclusively based out of BKK airport whilst the A319Neos shall be out of both USM and BKK respectively.

SC3 - PG sees for itself how useful the Airbus A220 family line of aircraft are to meet its network needs hence decides on an all new fleet strategy of replacing its entire fleet of A319s/A320s with A220-300s and the ATR 72 fleet with A220-100s. If all of Thailand's domestic airports along with some regional destinations which PG uses its AT7 fleet for, can handle the A220-100 then this option should seriously be considered as the long term cost savings incurred by operating a single aircraft fleet are enormous.

SC4 - PG replaces all its A319s and A320s with A220-300s + maintains its fleet of AT7s

From a long term financial perspective, provided all its current routes can support an A220, PG should then seriously request Airbus for a competitive proposal on a mixed order for 15 A220-100s + 25 A220-300s + options on 10 additional aircraft.

Air India announces JFK-Mumbai nonstop

Air India has officially announced that it shall be boosting its presence in the New York marketplace by launching 3 new weekly nonstop flights into New York JFK airport effective 07Dec-18. These new services will be operated from Mumbai nonstop using a B773ER with the below mentioned schedule :

Days 3/5/7

AI 105 Dep BOM 0100 Arr JFK 0655

AI 106 Dep JFK 1105 Arr BOM 1210+1

The schedule will enable good connections via BOM in both directions to MAA COK BLR HYD and AMD.

MEA Lebanon announces a big Airbus order

Lebanon’s MEA officially announces a new order for its full fleet replacement:

a) 5 A332s to be replaced by 4 new A330-900neos

b) 13 A320s to be replaced by 11 new A321Neos

Comments:

This is a smart move by MEA as it is sticking to its core focus of operating short and medium haul routes up to a maximum of 6 hours from its Beirut hub. Due to this, the airline does not need to waste  money by ordering the more expensive A350-900 which would have been the logical thing to do if it was any other airline.

Another interesting point to note is that it’s current fleet of 18 aircraft (5 A332s + 13 A320s) is being reduced to 16 (4 A339s + 11 A321neos) which in turn means it will be better optimizing it’s network to focus on routes where there is higher yielding p2p demand bound to Lebanon versus targeting lower yielding transit traffic from EU to GCC. 

In addition one is to expect few A332 routes to be downgraded to A321neos as the wide body fleet size reduces from 5 to 4. Lebanon isn’t a big cargo market so the loss of one wide body aircraft isn’t a big deal but what is commendable to note is the fact that they are not going to be operating the A320s in the future since they realize the economics of the A321neos is far superior + with many of their prime destinations ie DXB JED RUH LHR CDG CAI IST facing slot issues it is is best to maximize seats available per slot ratio to gain maximum uplift. 

my opinion on Lufthansa looking to order 20 more wide body aircraft

Lufthansa has announced that it is in the market to order 20 additional wide body aircraft to fully replace its Airbus A340-300 and Airbus A340-600 fleet. The oldest A340s are already started being phased out and replaced by Airbus A350-900s.

LH has revealed that they are seriously considering the Boeing 787 family too as a viable alternative for this big order but only the -9 and -10 versions.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-22/lufthansa-is-said-to-give-boeing-a-shot-at-new-wide-body-deal

Comments:

*Below comments are if the order is placed for LH only and not the LH Group of airlines which includes OS, LX and SN

Lufthansa currently operates 17 A346s + 15 A343s and its replacement aircraft i.e. the A359 will number a total of 25 units by year end. However as per the above article, it holds options for 30 additional A350s. 

LH's Airbus wide body aircraft fleet configuration is outlined below

A359s seat 293 pax (0F/48J/21W/224Y)
A346s seat 281 pax (8F/56J/28W/189Y)
A343s seat 251 pax (0F/42J/28W/181Y)

A333s seat 216 pax (8F/42J/21W/145Y)

Though the Boeing 787 family are a bunch of excellent aircraft for the mission that they operate especially the B789, since this order is for LH only and not the LH Group in its entirety, I feel it is best for the airline to exercise the 30 options it currently holds at historic pricing levels to firm up the 20 units it requires. 

The core problems for the Boeing 787 family in this order are as follows:

a) B789 would be too small for the high premium configuration that LH requires for its medium and long haul services especially considering that the B789 is slightly smaller than the A333.

b) The B781 range is approximately 11-11.5 hours which is too less for many of LH's routes to South America, South Africa, SE Asia and U.S. West Coast especially considering that LH is also a heavy cargo focused airline and dont want payload restricted aircraft operating on popular routes where freight demand is heavy. 

c) Introducing a new aircraft type into the LH mainline fleet mix which in turn would increase costs that can be easily avoided. If this order was for a LH Group subsidiary airline like Austrian (OS) then there is no doubt that the B789 is the best aircraft currently in the market to fully replace all the wide body aircraft operated by OS. It doesnt need the smaller B788 nor the larger B781 as the capacity and flying range of the B789 is ideally suited for OS across its entire medium/long haul route network. 

Apart from the historic pricing levels for the A350s that LH can exercise in its favor with this order from Airbus other benefits that this aircraft family can provide to the carrier versus the B787 family are as follows:

a) Greater flying range flexibility of A359 and A351; both of which can operate 13-14 hour flights nonstop with a full payload and more so now the A351 319T MTOW version which can do 14-15 hours.

b) LH I feel needs to split the order to be 15 A351s and 5 A359s because the A346 that the A351 is perfectly suited to replace has a higher premium cabin seat count versus their current A359 i.e A346 has 8F + 8J more seats than the A359 which is big money for this premium yield focused airline. 

c)The A351 will also seat approximately 25-30 more passengers in economy class as it has a 3-3-3 layout versus 2-4-2 on the A346 hence another form of incremental revenue with more seats available to sell at a much less operating cost.

d) If the MTOW A350-1000 version is ordered by LH, it can operate all of its current long haul routes nonstop without any payload restrictions what so ever with the exception of MEX-Mexico City due to its high altitude limitation which may pose an issue. 

e) Fleet commonality as introducing a new aircraft type i.e. B787 into the WB fleet will un-necessary increase costs and create issues across many departments.

my comments - Korean Air to place a big wide body aircraft order

Korean Air has officially announced that it is in the market to place a large order of wide body aircraft to replace a part of its aging fleet as well as to cater to future long haul expansion to Europe and North America. 

The airline's president stated clearly that the carrier is not interested to order the Airbus A330NEO and instead has shortlisted the requirement between the B777X, A350 and B787 families. KE currently still holds 10 options on an old Boeing 787-9 order of which it ordered 10 firm units initially.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-19/korean-air-mulling-large-widebody-jet-order-for-expansion

Comments:

Currently, KE's 29fleet mix till 2020 consists of 8 different aircraft types

10 B748s + 11 B747Fs
21 A333s + 08 A332s
10 B789s
14 B772s + 24 B77Ws + 4 B773s + 12 B77Fs
10 A380s
22 B739s + 30 B7M8s
30 A321NEOs
10 A223s

From the above 8 different aircraft types by 2025, the B748, A330s, B772s, B773s and A380s are not expected to be actively flown in commercial service. 

Personally speaking, KE has too many different aircraft types in its mainline fleet and this can be reduced in the following manner as part of the upcoming large wide body order

a) 10 A380s + 10 B748s replaced by 25 B777-9Xs (+5 for expansion)

b)Convert the 10 B748s into freighters as it has 4 B744Fs to replace initially so the incremental 6 units can be used for network expansion 

c) 14 B772s replaced by exercising the options for 10 B789s + order 10 more for regional and long haul expansion

d) 29 A330s replaced by 30 B787-10s

In this manner, the current long haul fleet from having A380s, B748s, B777s, A330s and B787s i.e. 5 different types gets reduced to 2 types only i.e. 50 B777s (26 B779s + 24 B77Ws) and 60 B787s (30 B781s + 30 B789s) which easily covers all their current and future route requirements (from a flying range perspective) + having 3 less aircraft types in the wide body fleet mix enables in the long run massive annual cost savings across the board. 

The Airbus A350 family line is not mentioned by me because I feel it is not required to add a third different aircraft type into the fleet mix + all the routes it can operate the B787 family line can also do so without any issues. Kindly note that I think very highly of the A350 family however for KE in this case, I really dont see the need for it from a commercial and operational stand point as fleet standardization benefits outweigh the need to have a third different aircraft type operating. 

For Boeing to get such a large order, it must provide an extra incentive such as be willing to fully pay for the cost to re-train KE's A330s pilots to the B787 family 

Royal Air Maroc announces Miami-Casablanca nonstop

Royal Air Maroc (RAM) has officially announced that it will be launching new nonstop services to Miami, USA effective 03APR-19 as the carrier looks to grow its relationship with American Airlines in North America.

AT will operate the new route using a B787-8 and due to the low amount of Africa bound traffic out of Florida, it shall be heavily reliant transfer traffic to MAD, BCN, CDG, LIS and BRU + beyond MIA connections fed by AA which is a very risky undertaking for a new 9 hour long route. 

The schedule is as follows:

Days 3/5/7 

AT 204 Dep CMN 1620 Arr MIA 1840
AT 205 Dep MIA 2150 Arr CMN 1100+1

Kuwait Airways increases Doha services

Kuwait Airways has officially announced that due to positive results, it will be increasing services to Doha from the on set of the IATA W18 season i.e. 28OCT-18.

Currently, KU flies double daily into DOH however from 28OCT, these shall be boosted to 19 weekly operated by a variety of aircraft with the majority being wide bodies. 

Demand on DOH-KWI-DOH for both QR and KU have increased a lot year over year due to the on going Arab blockade which forces Doha residents who have links with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE to fly via KWI or MCT mostly to their final destination. 

Oman Air suspends Najaf services

Oman Air has officially released via GDS publication that it will be suspending all flights into Najaf, Iraq effective 11NOV-18. It hasnt cited any particular reason for this move but its bound to be due to commercial reasons mainly.

WY currently operates 4 weekly services into NJF using a B738 and P2P demand on this route in 2017 was 14,000 round trip passengers. 

Cathay Pacific increases Madrid

Cathay Pacific has officially announced that due to rising demand, it will be increasing its services to Madrid, Spain effective 03JUN-19. 

Currently, CX operates 5 weekly services using an A351 however from June 2019 these shall be increased to daily flights with the additional 2 frequencies operated by the smaller A359. 

P2P demand (round trip pax) in 2017 vs 2016 on MAD + BCN to HKG was as follows:

MAD - 63,000 vs 54,000

BCN - 79,000 vs 63,000 

Qatar Airways increases Manchester

Qatar Airways has officially published for sale, an increase of frequencies into Manchester, UK effective 22MAY-19.

Currently, QR operates 18 weekly nonstop flights into MAN using B788s exclusively. 

However from 22MAY-19 onwards, these shall be boosted to triple daily with a standardized schedule using B788s.

Air India announces Bangalore-London nonstop

 

Air India has officially announced that it will be significantly expanding its medium haul network from November 2018 onwards as the carrier looks to take advantage of past missed opportunities. These are as follows:

BLR/LHR - new 3 weekly nonstop flights using a B788 

Days 2/4/6

AI 177 Dep BLR 0525 Arr LHR 1105 
AI 178 Dep LHR 1300 Arr BLR 0400+1

P2P demand between these 2 cities in 2017 was 155,000 round trip passengers 

AMD/EWR - all 3 weekly flights suspended

BLR/BKK - new 4 weekly flights using an A320

CCU/BKK - new 3 weekly flights using an A320

Indigo Airlines announces India-Kuwait expansion

India's Indigo Airlines has officially announced that it will be significantly expanding its presence in the Kuwait marketplace with the launch of 2 new nonstop flights from India which are in addition to its previously announced Chennai (MAA) - KWI daily flights.

Effective 01NOV:

COK/KWI - new daily nonstop flights using an A320N

6E 1757 Dep COK 2250 Arr KWI 0200+1
6E 1758 Dep KWI 0250 Arr COK 1025

AMD/KWI - new 3 weekly nonstop flights using an A320N

Days 2/5/7

6E 1753 Dep AMD 0830 Arr KWI 0940
6E 1754 Dep KWI 1040 Arr AMD 1650

Over the past 12 months, the P2P demand (round trip pax) between these cities and KWI were

MAA - 319,000
COK - 328,000
AMD - 91,000