my opinion on Lufthansa looking to order 20 more wide body aircraft

Lufthansa has announced that it is in the market to order 20 additional wide body aircraft to fully replace its Airbus A340-300 and Airbus A340-600 fleet. The oldest A340s are already started being phased out and replaced by Airbus A350-900s.

LH has revealed that they are seriously considering the Boeing 787 family too as a viable alternative for this big order but only the -9 and -10 versions.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-22/lufthansa-is-said-to-give-boeing-a-shot-at-new-wide-body-deal

Comments:

*Below comments are if the order is placed for LH only and not the LH Group of airlines which includes OS, LX and SN

Lufthansa currently operates 17 A346s + 15 A343s and its replacement aircraft i.e. the A359 will number a total of 25 units by year end. However as per the above article, it holds options for 30 additional A350s. 

LH's Airbus wide body aircraft fleet configuration is outlined below

A359s seat 293 pax (0F/48J/21W/224Y)
A346s seat 281 pax (8F/56J/28W/189Y)
A343s seat 251 pax (0F/42J/28W/181Y)

A333s seat 216 pax (8F/42J/21W/145Y)

Though the Boeing 787 family are a bunch of excellent aircraft for the mission that they operate especially the B789, since this order is for LH only and not the LH Group in its entirety, I feel it is best for the airline to exercise the 30 options it currently holds at historic pricing levels to firm up the 20 units it requires. 

The core problems for the Boeing 787 family in this order are as follows:

a) B789 would be too small for the high premium configuration that LH requires for its medium and long haul services especially considering that the B789 is slightly smaller than the A333.

b) The B781 range is approximately 11-11.5 hours which is too less for many of LH's routes to South America, South Africa, SE Asia and U.S. West Coast especially considering that LH is also a heavy cargo focused airline and dont want payload restricted aircraft operating on popular routes where freight demand is heavy. 

c) Introducing a new aircraft type into the LH mainline fleet mix which in turn would increase costs that can be easily avoided. If this order was for a LH Group subsidiary airline like Austrian (OS) then there is no doubt that the B789 is the best aircraft currently in the market to fully replace all the wide body aircraft operated by OS. It doesnt need the smaller B788 nor the larger B781 as the capacity and flying range of the B789 is ideally suited for OS across its entire medium/long haul route network. 

Apart from the historic pricing levels for the A350s that LH can exercise in its favor with this order from Airbus other benefits that this aircraft family can provide to the carrier versus the B787 family are as follows:

a) Greater flying range flexibility of A359 and A351; both of which can operate 13-14 hour flights nonstop with a full payload and more so now the A351 319T MTOW version which can do 14-15 hours.

b) LH I feel needs to split the order to be 15 A351s and 5 A359s because the A346 that the A351 is perfectly suited to replace has a higher premium cabin seat count versus their current A359 i.e A346 has 8F + 8J more seats than the A359 which is big money for this premium yield focused airline. 

c)The A351 will also seat approximately 25-30 more passengers in economy class as it has a 3-3-3 layout versus 2-4-2 on the A346 hence another form of incremental revenue with more seats available to sell at a much less operating cost.

d) If the MTOW A350-1000 version is ordered by LH, it can operate all of its current long haul routes nonstop without any payload restrictions what so ever with the exception of MEX-Mexico City due to its high altitude limitation which may pose an issue. 

e) Fleet commonality as introducing a new aircraft type i.e. B787 into the WB fleet will un-necessary increase costs and create issues across many departments.