Saturday, September 22, 2018

Thai Airways looking to order 23 aircraft - my brief input


The Thai Government has replaced the CEO and Board members of Thai Airways earlier on this month and the new executive management team has been tasked to properly review a proposal by the previous management to order 23 additional aircraft as the Government is hesitant to take on additional debt for the carrier. In consideration to order are the B787 and A350 family line of aircraft.

Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/tourism-and-transport/1543662/government-prods-thai-airways-about-plane-buys

Comments:

The current TG fleet consists of the below mentioned aircraft -

20 A320s (operated by Thai Smile)
15 A333s
12 A359s
06 A380s
08 B744s
06 B772s
06 B77Es
06 B773s
14 B77Ws
06 B788s
02 B789s

As you can see from the above TG fleet list, its a big jigsaw puzzle having 7 different aircraft types which is a massive headache to maintain and efficiently plan. This is due to the Thai government wanting to politically satisfy equally the Americans and Europeans alike. 

However for the carrier to operate in a profitable, efficient and disciplined manner, the fleet mix needs to be reduced to 2 or 3 types maximum in the below mentioned manner:

Option 1

30 A321NEOs exclusively for the narrow bodied fleet
35 B789s 
25 B77Ws 

Only 3 aircraft types in the fleet for the 2020-30 period!

The A321s are needed to replace the A333s on regional and domestic flights where currently multiple daily services are operated with less than 60% SF. In addition many of Thai Smiles A320 routes can easily be operated by A321s as now both DMK + BKK airports are slot restricted hence they need to maximize "the seats per slot ratio". For the above to happen, Boeing in particular needs to offer a deal which includes buying back or being responsible to sell TG's size able Airbus wide bodied fleet.

Option 2

30 A321NEOs 
35 A359s
25 A351s

Only 2 aircraft types in the fleet i.e. A320 + A350 family line for the 2020-30 period thus making TG an all Airbus operator. 

This option though financially speaking in the long run would make best sense, politically speaking it is very sensitive as there is no Boeing representation. 

Thai has another LCC partner carrier called Nok Air which operates B738s across Thailand so there are trained Boeing narrow body pilots in Thailand so if need be the 30 A321NEOs can be replaced by 30 Boeing 737 MAX10 aircraft in order to pacify both manufacturers.   

For option 2 to materialize, Airbus needs to offer a super deal which includes buying back or being responsible to sell all the Boeing 777/787 wide body aircraft. 

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