Cathay Pacific increases Frankfurt flights

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Cathay Pacific has officially announced that due to positive results, it shall be increasing its services to Frankfurt, Germany effective 31MAR-19. Currently, CX operates a daily B77W between HKG and FRA but those will be boosted by 3 additional weekly services using an A350-900 from the on set of the IATA S19 season. 

The new flights will be scheduled as follows:

Days - 2/5/7

CX 283 Dep HKG 1230 Arr FRA 1840
CX 282 Dep FRA 2040 Arr HKG 1345+1

In 2017, 152,000 passengers (round trip) flew P2P between FRA and HKG versus 150,000 in 2016.

Lufthansa announces Munich-Bangkok

Lufthansa has officially announced that it will be significantly increasing its Southeast Asia network out of its Munich hub as the carrier looks to regain lost market share out of the city to the Middle East carriers in particular.

LH announced the following effective April 2019:

MUC/BKK - new daily nonstop flights

MUC/SIN - increased from 5 weekly to daily using an A359

MUC/ICN - increased from 5 weekly to daily using an A359

MUC-BKK daily nonstop will hurt all the main 4 Gulf carriers a bit as BKK is one of the top 3 feeder destinations for not only MUC but also few other EU tier 1 cities. In 2017, demand on MUC-BKK-MUC round trip grew to 267,000 passengers versus 250,000 in 2016. 

MUC-ICN-MUC grew from 82,000 in 2016 to 88,000 round trip pax in 2017 whilst MUC-SIN v.v. grew from 83,000 in 2016 to 99,000 in 2017.

my analysis - Thai Airways Manchester-Bangkok potential

Thai Airways looking to order 23 aircraft - my brief input

The Thai Government has replaced the CEO and Board members of Thai Airways earlier on this month and the new executive management team has been tasked to properly review a proposal by the previous management to order 23 additional aircraft as the Government is hesitant to take on additional debt for the carrier. In consideration to order are the B787 and A350 family line of aircraft.

Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/tourism-and-transport/1543662/government-prods-thai-airways-about-plane-buys

Comments:

The current TG fleet consists of the below mentioned aircraft -

20 A320s (operated by Thai Smile)
15 A333s
12 A359s
06 A380s
08 B744s
06 B772s
06 B77Es
06 B773s
14 B77Ws
06 B788s
02 B789s

As you can see from the above TG fleet list, its a big jigsaw puzzle having 7 different aircraft types which is a massive headache to maintain and efficiently plan. This is due to the Thai government wanting to politically satisfy equally the Americans and Europeans alike. 

However for the carrier to operate in a profitable, efficient and disciplined manner, the fleet mix needs to be reduced to 2 or 3 types maximum in the below mentioned manner:

Option 1

30 A321NEOs exclusively for the narrow bodied fleet
35 B789s 
25 B77Ws 

Only 3 aircraft types in the fleet for the 2020-30 period!

The A321s are needed to replace the A333s on regional and domestic flights where currently multiple daily services are operated with less than 60% SF. In addition many of Thai Smiles A320 routes can easily be operated by A321s as now both DMK + BKK airports are slot restricted hence they need to maximize "the seats per slot ratio". For the above to happen, Boeing in particular needs to offer a deal which includes buying back or being responsible to sell TG's size able Airbus wide bodied fleet.

Option 2

30 A321NEOs 
35 A359s
25 A351s

Only 2 aircraft types in the fleet i.e. A320 + A350 family line for the 2020-30 period thus making TG an all Airbus operator. 

This option though financially speaking in the long run would make best sense, politically speaking it is very sensitive as there is no Boeing representation. 

Thai has another LCC partner carrier called Nok Air which operates B738s across Thailand so there are trained Boeing narrow body pilots in Thailand so if need be the 30 A321NEOs can be replaced by 30 Boeing 737 MAX10 aircraft in order to pacify both manufacturers.   

For option 2 to materialize, Airbus needs to offer a super deal which includes buying back or being responsible to sell all the Boeing 777/787 wide body aircraft. 

Flydubai reduces Kathmandu services

Flydubai has announced via GDS publication that it shall be reducing its services into KTM-Kathmandu, Nepal from the on set of the IATA W18 season i.e. 28OCT-18.

Currently FZ operates 4 daily nonstop flights between Dubai and Kathmandu departing DXB at 0225/0915/1220/1600. However from 28OCT onwards, the 0225 departure has been closed for sale. 

P2P demand between DXB and KTM increased by almost 100% in 2017 versus 2016 i.e. 166,000 (round trip pax) versus 84,000 in 2016.

KLM announces Las Vegas

KLM has officially announced that it will be launching new nonstop services to LAS-Las Vegas, USA effective 06JUN-19. 

The flights shall be operated 3 times per week using a Boeing 787-9 using the below mentioned schedule:

Days - 2/4/7

KL 635 Dep AMS 1230 Arr LAS 1415
KL 636 Dep LAS 1605 Arr AMS 1105+1

Comments:

This shall see high demand on both P2P + 6th freedom.

P2P round trip pax demand in 2017 AMS-LAS-AMS was 63,000 versus 55,000 in 2016 so having a 3 weekly B789 caters perfectly year round for all market segments. 
Their niche focus will be getting tourists from the Scandinavian cities of OSL (11,000) CPH (23,000) ARN (20,000) HEL (7,000) + BRU (15,000) to fly them via AMS along with spillover from UK when VS + BA are full / too expensive. 

Gulf Air increases Karachi and Sialkot

Gulf Air has disclosed that it will be increasing its presence in the Pakistani marketplace by adding more services to Karachi and Sialkot effective 28OCT-18.

KHI - frequencies increased from 8 to 10 weekly flights i.e. 5 weekly each A321s and A320s respectively

SKT - frequencies increased from 4 to 5 weekly i.e. weekly A320 + 4 weekly A321

GF's main feeder markets for SKT are KWI and KSA. 

Oman Air announces Athens

Oman Air has officially announced that it will be launching new nonstop flights to Athens, Greece effective 03JUN 2019.

WY will operate the new service using their newly delivered Boeing 737-8MAX aircraft with the below mentioned schedule:

Days - Daily

WY 191 Dep MCT 1445 Arr ATH 1950
WY 192 Dep ATH 0020 Arr MCT 0635+1

P2P round trip traffic demand between MCT and ATH in 2017 was 5,600 passengers only.

Comments:

Launching this route as a daily service from the get go is an extremely high risk move by WY. Maximum this route needs to be operated is 4 times per week for them initially for the first year at least. In winter season, demand will fall a bit hence having a daily operation would not be commercially viable.

Emirates suspends Mashad flights effective 27OCT

Emirates has officially announced that it will be suspending all of its services to MHD-Mashad, Iran effective 27OCT-18 as the carrier further streamlines its network with partner Fly Dubai. These cancellations are now reflecting across all GDS systems.

EK currently operates 3 weekly B77Ws into MHD on Days 2/3/5.

As a result of the above, effective 27OCT-18, Fly Dubai (FZ) shall increase from 3 weekly to daily nonstop using a B738.

P2P demand between DXB and MHD did fall in 2017 versus 2016 i.e. from 93,000 pax in 2016 to 67,000 the following year. The top feeder markets for EK were BAH, KHI, LHE, KWI, DMM, BKK and KUL. 

SN Brussels suspends Mumbai route effective 06JAN-19

SN Brussels Airlines has officially announced (via GDS publication) that it shall be suspending all its services to BOM-Mumbai, India effective 06JAN 2019.

Currently the airline operates 6 weekly nonstop flights from its Brussels hub using an Airbus A330-200. The route has obviously not been performing well for the airline to undertake such a bold step. It is expected that the aircraft used for BOM shall be re-directed to boost its better performing African services. 

Round trip passenger demand between BRU and BOM/DEL in 2017 versus 2016 was as follows below:

BOM - 61,000 vs 42,000

DEL - 38,000 vs 37,000

my analysis - United Airlines Lagos-Houston potential

Turkish Airlines announces Lusaka

Turkish Airlines has officially published for sale, a new long haul route that shall be launched effective 13DEC-18.

TK will begin flying to Lusaka, Zambia via Dar Es Salaam using an Airbus A330-200 twice a week. 

Flights depart IST on MON and THU at 1940 and land back by 1640 the next day which means it wont connect USA in both directions but only mainland EU + UK.

Etihad announces Boeing 787-10 details

Etihad Airways has officially published across all major GDS systems, details about its soon to be delivered Boeing 787-10 which will begin flying from the on set of the IATA W18 season. 

The configuration is as follows:

336 seats in total i.e. 32 business class + 304 economy class

The first 2 routes the aircraft will be deployed on are Seoul and Jeddah. 

The aircraft is incapable of operating long haul nonstop flights from AUH to USA and Australia as the smaller B787-9 is better suited for those missions.

my analysis - Kenya Airways JFK route forecast

Above revenue amount includes US$40,000 of cargo per round trip flight

Air India announces Mumbai-Frankfurt

Air India has officially announced that it will be launching a new service to Frankfurt, Germany from its secondary hub of Mumbai effective 28OCT.

These new flights will operate 4 times per week nonstop using a B787-8 using the below mentioned schedule:

Days 2/3/5/7

AI 125 Dep BOM 1000 Arr FRA 1400 
AI 124 Dep FRA 1545 Arr BOM 0415+1

Pax demand in 2017 versus 2016 (round trip) on FRA-India-FRA was as follows below:

DEL - 132,000 vs 120,0000
BLR - 68,000 vs 62,000

BOM - 63,000 vs 55,000

PNQ - 13,000 vs 10,000

MAA - 36,000 vs 34,000
HYD - 14,000 vs 12,000

ATQ - 20,000 vs 18,000

Air Canada increases Dubai nonstop flights

Air Canada has officially open for sale an additional weekly service into Dubai, UAE effective 02NOV-18.

The new 4th weekly flight will operate on Fridays out of YYZ using a B77W which is similar to the other 3 weekly services as well. 

Demand between Canada and DXB in 2017 versus 2016 was as follows:

*P2P traffic round trip pax stats below

2017 vs 2016

YYZ - 118,000 vs 112,00 
YVR - 16,000 vs 14,000
YUL - 20,000 vs 18,000
YYC - 11,000 vs 10,000
YOW - 6,000 vs 6,000
YEG - 6,000 vs 6,000

Total - 177,000 vs 166,000 Year over Year round trip pax

Nigeria's Air Peace orders 10 B7M8s

Nigeria's Air Peace has officially announced that it has placed an order for 10 Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft to cater for its future domestic and regional West African expansion. 

The airline currently operates a mix fleet of B737-300s/500s and ERJ-145s whilst its 2 Boeing 777s are still parked at Lagos airport awaiting clearance to launch long haul operations.

Source: http://aviationtribune.com/airlines/africa/nigerian-airline-air-peace-announces-order-for-10-boeing-737-max-8s/

Air France announces Dallas nonstop

Air France has officially announced that it will be launching new nonstop services to DFW-Dallas, USA effective 31MAR19 as the carrier looks into tapping all the major tier 1 American cities aggressively where it currently doesnt have a presence. 

Flights shall be operated 5 times per week using an A332 with the below mentioned schedule:

Days 1/3/5/6/7

AF 150 Dep CDG 1010 Arr DFW 1350
AF 159 Dep DFW 1545 Arr CDG 0815+1

The schedule is timed perfectly in both directions via CDG to connect all its major feeder markets in Africa, India, UAE and Western Europe. 

Flydubai reveals Boeing 737-MAX9 configuration

Fly Dubai has officially revealed details of its Boeing 737 MAX9 configuration which would be entering into its fleet from the on set of the IATA Summer 2019 season. 

FZ's B7M9s will seat 172 passengers in a 2 class configuration with all aircraft having flat beds in business class. The cabin configuration split is 16 business class + 156 economy class. 

The inaugural route filed for the aircraft type is a daily Bucharest service. 

In addition to the above, FZ also announced that it shall be increasing its Kiev, Ukraine bound flights from daily to double daily effective 28OCT18. All Kiev bound flights shall be code shared by Emirates.

Qatar Airways increases Bangkok frequencies

Qatar Airways has officially opened for sale across all GDS systems, an additional 7th daily nonstop flight to Bangkok, Thailand effective 28OCT18.

The new daily service is scheduled as follows:

QR 838 Dep DOH 0835 Arr BKK 1920
QR 839 Dep BKK 1410 Arr DOH 1800 

The above flight schedule connects very well in both directions with its evening departures out of EU via DOH and on the return would enable an early morning arrival back into EU which passengers prefer.

Qatar Airways increases Hanoi capacity

Qatar Airways has officially published across all GDS systems, its expansion plans for Vietnam from the on set of the IATA W18 season which are as follows:

HAN - capacity increased to double daily nonstop terminator flights using a B788 + B77W each respectively. The one stop service with the B77W via BKK gets replaced with a nonstop. 

DAD - new 4 weekly nonstop flights using a B788 effective 19DEC

LOT Polish announces Miami-Warsaw nonstop

LOT Polish has officially announced that it shall be launching new nonstop flights to MIA-Miami, USA effective 01JUN19. 

LO will operate the service 4 times per week using a B788 using the below schedule:

*All times local*

Days 1/3/5/6

LO 029 Dep WAW 1205 Arr MIA 1730
LO 030 Dep MIA 2005 Arr WAW 1215+1

P2P traffic in 2017 between WAW and MIA was 18,000 passengers round trip

Comments:

With MIA not being a Star Alliance hub and catering largely to low yielding leisure traffic originating from Eastern and Central Europe, LO may find the route more harder to fill consistently at 70% SF. It would have been better for them to consider flying to IAD-Washington DC instead of Miami due to the following reasons:

1. P2P traffic between WAW and IAD is just 1,000 pax less than MIA i.e. 17,000 vs 18,000 however the average one way market fare of WAW-IAD is almost double of MIA and thats where the money is to be made i.e. $280 vs $540 

2. In addition, IAD is a major Star Alliance hub of UA which can provide a healthy dose of beyond feeder traffic all over the continental U.S which cannot be done out of MIA as its a One World hub.

3. Apart from OS, IAD lacks a strong presence to Eastern Europe which LO can easily provide via its WAW hub.